Substantive Papers
Empirical papers are listed here in reverse chronological order and can be downloaded pdffiles by clicking on the titles. In some cases, you can also access the associated journal site by clicking on the journal name.
Willett, J. B. & Singer, J. D., (1989). Two Types of Questions About Time: Methodological Issues in the Analysis of Teatcher Career Path Data. International Journal of Educational Research, 13(4), 421-437.
We use median-detrends and schematic plots to detect and document an influence on the duration of teacher employment which has heretofore eluded empirical quantification -- the involuntary layoff. Using data on the lengths of employment of about 14,000 teachers hired between 1969 and 1981 in St. Louis, we show that over and above the effects that previous researchers have identified, there were certain years in which many more recently hired teachers were likely to leave their districts thatn might have been expected.
Murnane, R. J., Singer, J. D., & Willett, J. B. (1989). The Influences of Salaries and "Opportunity Costs" on Teachers' Career Choices: Evidence from North Carolina. Harvard Educational Review, 59(3), 325-346.
Investigation of the career paths of White Teachers in North Carolina who were first hired between 1976 and 1979. Using discrete-time hazards-modeling, we explore the relationship between the risk of leaving teaching and teacher salary and opportunity cost. We discuss implications of the findings for policy and teacher supply.
Singer, J. D., & Willett, J. B. (1988). Detecting Involuntary Layoffs in Teacher Survival Data: The Year of Leaving Dangerously. Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 10(3), 212-224.
We use median-detrends and schematic plots to detect and document an influence on the duration of teacher employment which has heretofore eluded empirical quantification -- the involuntary layoff. Using data on the lengths of employment of about 14,000 teachers hired between 1969 and 1981 in St. Louis, we show that over and above the effects that previous researchers have identified, there were certain years in which many more recently hired teachers were likely to leave their districts thatn might have been expected.
Murnane, R. J., Singer, J. D., & Willett, J. B. (1988). The Career Path of Teachers: Implications for Teacher Supply and Methodological Lessons for Research. Educational Researcher, Aug-Sept, 22-30
Attempts to determine whether enough qualified teachers will be available to staff the nation's schools in the coming years have been hampered by methodological difficulties that are inherent in the study of teacher career patterns, using proportional hazards modeling. We find that teacher demographic characteristics and subject specialty are important predictors of the length of stay in teaching. The results call into question several assumptions about teacher career persistence implicit in the national teacher supply and demand model.
Murnane, R. J., Singer, J. D., & Willett, J. B. (1987). Changes in Teacher Salaries During the 1970s: The Role of School District Demographics. Economics of Education Review, 6(4), 379-388
Analyzes changes in teacher salary schedules of Michigan school districts between 1970 and 1980. We find that starting salaries, expressed in 1970 dollars, decreased by an average of 20% over the decade. Real maximum salaries decreased by 15%. The between-district variablity of starting salaries also increased markedly over the decade, making the average starting salary a much poorer estimate of the starting salary a particular teacher earned in 1980 than in 1970. The between-district variability of maximum salaries did not increase over the decade.